{"id":912,"date":"2026-08-25T13:58:51","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T13:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carina-stoettner.de\/?p=912"},"modified":"2026-08-25T13:59:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T13:59:23","slug":"der-sudkurier-uber-szenario-denken-in-krisenzeiten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carina-stoettner.de\/en\/sudkurier-about-scenario-thinking-in-times-of-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00dcDKURIER on scenario thinking in times of crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\nWhat do you do when your own industry starts to wobble? S\u00dcDKURIER put that question to Carina St\u00f6ttner following her keynote at the Friends & Family Day of the Institute for Strategic Innovation and Transformation (IST) at HTWG Konstanz.\r\n\r\n\r\n

Two thought patterns that block decisions<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe talk centered on two cognitive biases at work in almost every organization \u2014 and ones Carina St\u00f6ttner returns to regularly in her keynote “The Future as Opportunity”<\/strong>.\r\n\r\n\r\nThe first: threatening information sticks far better than neutral or positive information. It’s a reflex that made evolutionary sense, but today it can leave leaders blind to the room they actually have to maneuver.\r\n\r\n\r\nThe second works in the opposite direction: the assumption that things will carry on much as they always have. Carina St\u00f6ttner tested this on the roughly fifty people in the room with a single simple question \u2014 and the result was clear enough that the journalist gave it a section heading of its own.\r\n\r\n\r\n

Scenarios beat forecasts<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\nThe article also picks up an example that reliably produces a moment of recognition in her talks. In the early 1970s, one oil company committed to systematic scenario planning against the resistance of the wider industry. When the oil crisis hit, every scenario they had developed turned out to be wrong \u2014 and the company was still far better positioned than its rivals. The value of scenario work lies not in the accuracy rate but in the ability to act when it counts.\r\n\r\n\r\nJournalist Joshua Tress also describes the three phases organizations move through in periods of upheaval, how the questions put to a futurist have shifted since the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and why the goal of a futures process is allowed to change along the way.\r\n\r\n\r\n\ud83d\udc49 Read the article in S\u00dcDKURIER<\/a><\/strong> (25 July 2026, by Joshua Tress) \u2014 in German\r\n\r\n\r\n

Book this keynote for your event<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n“The Future as Opportunity”<\/strong> examines the thought patterns that cloud our view of what’s coming, the concrete value of thinking in scenarios, and how organizations regain their ability to shape their own future \u2014 especially in uncertain times. Delivered to audiences at Erste Group, Google, WTS Advisory and the Otto Group, among others.\r\n\r\n\r\n\ud83d\udce9 kontakt@carina-stoettner.de<\/a> \u2014 for a short introductory call about your event.\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What do you do when your own industry starts to wobble? S\u00dcDKURIER put that question to Carina St\u00f6ttner following her keynote at the Friends & Family Day of the Institute for Strategic Innovation and Transformation (IST) at HTWG Konstanz University of Applied Sciences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,3],"tags":[191,190,9,100,77],"class_list":["post-912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-rede","tag-krise","tag-presse","tag-rede","tag-szenarien","tag-zukunftsforschung"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t