The future can’t be predicted — but it can be shaped. To help companies build resilience in a complex world, I work with established and emerging methods from futures research. The question at the center is always the same: how do you turn what we know today into decisions that hold up tomorrow?
Here’s an overview of the methods I work with:
The Delphi method
What is the Delphi method?
Delphi is a qualitative method used in futures research. Over several rounds, experts from different fields are systematically asked to assess how the future might develop. The method was developed at the RAND Corporation and takes its name from the ancient oracle at Delphi.
The first step is in-depth interviews with a selected panel of experts (15 to 35 people). I condense what they say into hypotheses, which go back to the panel anonymously in a second round for assessment. What emerges is a well-grounded picture of possible developments.
What is Delphi good for?
- Developing well-founded forecasts
- Assessing trend and technology scenarios
- Finding strategic direction under high uncertainty
Scenario analysis
What is scenario analysis?
Scenarios are narrative, plausible futures built from assumptions, drivers and uncertainties. They help companies understand different paths ahead and make strategic decisions that hold up across more than one of them.
Originally coined by Herman Kahn and famously used by Shell to navigate the oil crisis, the method lets you play developments through and see what they would mean for your business model.
What are scenarios good for?
- Identifying strategic options
- Working through uncertainty
- Communicating complex pictures of the future
Backcasting
What is backcasting?
Backcasting doesn’t start in the present but in a future worth having. From there we work systematically backwards, deriving the steps that lead to it. That opens up radically different perspectives and breaks through mental blocks.
I work with leadership teams to define a clear picture of the future, then develop short-, medium- and long-term strategies from it together.
What is backcasting good for?
- Developing strategies that are visionary and realistic at once
- Breaking the habit of short-term reaction
- Giving innovation or transformation programs a strategic direction
The Futures Triangle
What is the Futures Triangle?
The Futures Triangle, developed by Sohail Inayatullah, analyzes three forces that shape any future:
- Push: the drivers of the present
- Pull: compelling visions of the future
- Weight: the structures of the past that hold things back
The method helps make visible the tensions within which strategic decisions actually play out.
What is the Futures Triangle good for?
- Analyzing contradictory demands on the future
- Setting strategic priorities
- Reflecting on cultural and structural blockers
The Futures Wheel
What is a Futures Wheel?
The Futures Wheel, developed by Jerome C. Glenn, is a visual thinking tool for systematically mapping the direct and indirect consequences of an event or a trend.
At the center sits a single impulse — a technological innovation, for example. From there we work outward in concentric rings through first-, second- and third-order effects.
What is the Futures Wheel good for?
- Analyzing developments systemically
- Getting teams involved in creative thinking about the future
- Spotting the risks and side effects of early decisions
Trend radar
What is a trend radar?
A trend radar is a structured analytical tool that captures, assesses and visualizes relevant trends and weak signals for use in strategy work. Trends are positioned according to their relevance and their level of uncertainty.
I build trend radars for sectors, technologies or specific questions — the future of work, of industry or of sustainability, for instance.
What is a trend radar good for?
- Strategic early warning
- Identifying fields for innovation
- Communicating knowledge about the future inside the company
Not sure which method fits your question best? I’m happy to help you choose one and put it into practice.
