Foresight is a toolkit for strategic thinking. I work with established methods from futures research — Delphi, scenario analysis, the Futures Wheel, trend radars — to help companies find their bearings in uncertainty and take an active hand in shaping what comes next.
The future can’t be predicted — but it can be shaped. To help companies build resilience in a complex world, I work with established and emerging methods from futures research. The question at the center is always the same: how do you turn what we know today into decisions that hold up tomorrow?
Here’s an overview of the methods I and the Futurewise Company work with regularly.
The Delphi method
What is the Delphi method?
Delphi is a qualitative method used in futures research. Over several rounds, experts from different fields are systematically asked to assess how the future might develop. The method was developed at the RAND Corporation and takes its name from the ancient oracle at Delphi.
The first step is in-depth interviews with a selected panel of experts (15 to 35 people). I condense what they say into hypotheses, which go back to the panel anonymously in a second round for assessment. What emerges is a well-grounded picture of possible developments.
What is Delphi good for?
Broadening perspective
Assessing trend and technology scenarios
Finding strategic direction under high uncertainty
In practice
I reach for Delphi when I want to go deeper with a leadership team: where are the future growth opportunities for their company, and where are new risks emerging? We talk to politicians, academics, potential customers and consumers, and also to other entrepreneurs and start-ups. We go into those conversations together and try to understand where the real ruptures are happening. What makes it interesting is that most of what comes out of it isn’t in the headlines or the reports. These interviews give us a direct look into the engine room, or behind the closed doors where political decisions get made.
Scenario analysis
What is scenario analysis?
Scenarios are narrative, plausible futures built from assumptions, drivers and uncertainties. They help companies understand different paths ahead and make strategic decisions that hold up across more than one of them.
Originally coined by Herman Kahn and famously used by Shell to navigate the oil crisis, the method lets you play developments through and see what they would mean for your business model.
What are scenarios good for?
Identifying strategic options
Working through uncertainty
Communicating complex pictures of the future
In practice
There are dozens of ways to build scenarios. In the video below I explain three of them briefly. Simple approaches like the 2×2 matrix work well with clients when we want to think a specific question through efficiently from several directions: what happens if our customer segment’s purchasing power keeps growing — and what if it stalls? What if demand for technology X stays niche — and what if it turns into a mass market? It’s a fast, straightforward way to play out different developments. When a discussion inside a team is getting heated, it particularly helps everyone step back and look at all the possible directions as objectively as they can.
Backcasting
What is backcasting?
Backcasting doesn’t start in the present but in a future worth having. From there we work systematically backwards, deriving the steps that lead to it. That opens up radically different perspectives and breaks through mental blocks.
I work with leadership teams to define a clear picture of the future, then develop short-, medium- and long-term strategies from it together.
What is backcasting good for?
Developing strategies that are visionary and realistic at once
Breaking the habit of short-term reaction
Giving innovation or transformation programs a strategic direction
In practice
Talking about the future generates plenty of good ideas. The problem is that back in the here and now, nobody in the operating business suddenly has time to work on long-term topics as well. Backcasting is a great way to show that if we haven’t delivered Y by point X, the vision we developed won’t become reality. It creates accountability and breaks a big vision down into manageable, actionable steps.
The Futures Triangle
What is the Futures Triangle?
The Futures Triangle, developed by Sohail Inayatullah, analyzes three forces that shape any future:
Push: the drivers of the present
Pull: compelling visions of the future
Weight: the structures of the past that hold things back
The method helps make visible the tensions within which strategic decisions actually play out.
What is the Futures Triangle good for?
Analyzing contradictory demands on the future
Setting strategic priorities
Reflecting on cultural and structural blockers
In practice
“We discussed this three years ago and it didn’t work then, so now it’s off the table.” I hear some version of that in every company I work with. This method is well suited to making those beliefs visible and asking why they exist in the first place. And it applies not only to the past and present but to the future too. Take hyped trends: they can be seductive, and plenty of companies jump straight on board. But is it hype or a long-term opportunity? The Futures Triangle helps you look at that more closely.
The Futures Wheel
What is a Futures Wheel?
The Futures Wheel, developed by Jerome C. Glenn, is a visual thinking tool for systematically mapping the direct and indirect consequences of an event or a trend.
At the center sits a single impulse — a technological innovation, for example. From there we work outward in concentric rings through first-, second- and third-order effects.
What is the Futures Wheel good for?
Analyzing developments systemically
Getting teams involved in creative thinking about the future
Spotting the risks and side effects of early decisions
In practice
Anyone can think a single trend through: AI will take over a large share of graphic design work. The Futures Wheel helps you think one step further. Does that mean those jobs become redundant — and if so, which parts of them? Or does it mean a graphic designer can now handle ten commissions a day instead of one, and eventually has to, because clients increasingly expect lower prices? And if that’s right, being a graphic designer means becoming an AI tool manager running ten tasks in parallel. Which means I need people who can handle that simultaneity. The pressure in the job goes up, and so do the demands on how people think. What does that mean for managing staff, for burnout rates, for how agencies distribute work? A Futures Wheel helps you follow developments like that all the way through.
Trend radar
What is a trend radar?
A trend radar is a structured analytical tool that captures, assesses and visualizes relevant trends and weak signals for use in strategy work. Trends are positioned according to their relevance and their level of uncertainty.
I build trend radars for sectors, technologies or specific questions — the future of work, of industry or of sustainability, for instance.
What is a trend radar good for?
Strategic early warning
Identifying fields for innovation
Communicating knowledge about the future inside the company
Not sure which method fits your question best? I’m happy to help you choose one and put it into practice.
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