What do you do when your own industry starts to wobble? SÜDKURIER put that question to Carina Stöttner following her keynote at the Friends & Family Day of the Institute for Strategic Innovation and Transformation (IST) at HTWG Konstanz.
Two thought patterns that block decisions
The talk centered on two cognitive biases at work in almost every organization — and ones Carina Stöttner returns to regularly in her keynote
“The Future as Opportunity”.
The first: threatening information sticks far better than neutral or positive information. It’s a reflex that made evolutionary sense, but today it can leave leaders blind to the room they actually have to maneuver.
The second works in the opposite direction: the assumption that things will carry on much as they always have. Carina Stöttner tested this on the roughly fifty people in the room with a single simple question — and the result was clear enough that the journalist gave it a section heading of its own.
Scenarios beat forecasts
The article also picks up an example that reliably produces a moment of recognition in her talks. In the early 1970s, one oil company committed to systematic scenario planning against the resistance of the wider industry. When the oil crisis hit, every scenario they had developed turned out to be wrong — and the company was still far better positioned than its rivals. The value of scenario work lies not in the accuracy rate but in the ability to act when it counts.
Journalist Joshua Tress also describes the three phases organizations move through in periods of upheaval, how the questions put to a futurist have shifted since the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and why the goal of a futures process is allowed to change along the way.
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Read the article in SÜDKURIER (25 July 2026, by Joshua Tress) — in German
Book this keynote for your event
“The Future as Opportunity” examines the thought patterns that cloud our view of what’s coming, the concrete value of thinking in scenarios, and how organizations regain their ability to shape their own future — especially in uncertain times. Delivered to audiences at Erste Group, Google, WTS Advisory and the Otto Group, among others.
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kontakt@carina-stoettner.de — for a short introductory call about your event.
