The Future of the Manufacturing Industry & Labor in 2045: Four Scenarios
What will German industry look like in 2045 — and what does that mean for industrial work? That question sits at the heart of a new study, “Future Scenarios for Industry and Industrial Work in Germany,” developed by Themis Foresight together with partners Südwestmetall, Deutsche Bahn and Perthex.
The findings were presented at a closing event attended by more than 60 representatives from industry, education, trade unions and government, with discussion focused on what they mean for companies, employees and policymakers.
Four plausible scenarios for Germany’s industrial future
The study sketches four scenarios, each integrating different political, technological and social developments. They offer orientation for making strategic decisions under uncertainty:
1. Deep Tech Germany
Germany becomes a global center for highly specialized technology and deep tech innovation. Research and development boom while automated processes replace simpler tasks. The demand is for “new collar” workers — highly specialized people with both technical know-how and digital skills.
2. Designed in Germany, made in the world
Germany remains an innovation leader, but production capacity moves increasingly abroad. Value is created mainly through design, research and development. The industrial core shrinks while dependence on global supply chains grows — bringing new risks with it.
3. A regional European industry
Industry concentrates on resilient European value chains, with sustainability and regional production taking priority. Skilled manual work regains importance, since not every process can be automated.
4. Local-for-local industry
Industry becomes more decentralized: production happens locally, serving regional markets directly. In Europe this drives heavy automation and rising demand for qualified specialists, while low-skilled work increasingly disappears.
Foresight as a strategic tool
“Scenarios help companies prepare for different possible futures and navigate uncertainty. They aren’t forecasts — they make it possible to set strategic direction early,”
says Carina Stoettner, managing director of Themis Foresight and one of the leading speakers on industry, technology and the future.
A panel discussion took the scenarios apart in detail, with representatives from business, industry associations and research — among them Barbara Resch (IG Metall), Dr. Joachim Schulz (Südwestmetall), Hanno Hoehn (MANN+HUMMEL Group) and Prof. Hubertus Bardt (IW Köln). Jan David Ott (Themis Foresight) moderated.
Industrial work in 2045: change needs direction
Automation, location policy, new skill requirements — the world of industrial work faces fundamental change. Foresight-based scenarios don’t just prompt reflection; they are practical instruments for workforce planning, innovation policy and education strategy.
Carina Stoettner — speaker on the future of industry and industrial work
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